2G + CWG Scam + Anti-Corruption Wave – Strong Chance for SP in Uttar Pradesh. UPA Central Govt May Collapse

The Indian Political Economy is in Short Term trouble for sure. The under-the-table cooperation model between politics and business in India had clearly broken down due to a series of corruption scandals like the Commonwealth Games, 2G Spectrum Scam, SEBI Consent Order Scam, Mining Scam Across the Country, etc

The ruling Congress / UPA will face an adverse outcome due to its direct / indirect involvement in the series of scams across the length and breadth of the country under the weakest Prime Minister in World history. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party likely to win the Uttar Pradesh elections and the Congress struggling to even get close to the 70-seat mark. This in turn could embolden the opposition at the coming Budget Session in mid-March 2012 which ultimately could culminate into a loss of confidence in the ruling UPA coalition Government.

Use of EVMS in Elections is being challenged in the court as this device does not create an audit trail unlike physical votes. It has always been pointed out that EVMs are being actively used to Rig and Manipulate the elections as well.

India is currently undergoing a momentous institutional change that could to lead to a cleaner way of doing business in the medium term but is likely to hurt growth in the short term due to the business uncertainty that it creates.