The first opinion poll survey conducted in Mar 2016 by Lokniti-CSDS on the upcoming Uttar Pradesh (UP) Assembly election in 2017 suggests that no single party will be able to get a majority on its own in a 402 seat assembly. The BJP under Narendra Modi as Prime Minister and Amit Shah as its President is headed for a Massive Defeat.
The survey results suggest that people are fairly satisfied with the SP Government’s development work and a large number of respondents feel that developmental work under the SP Government has improved compared to the previous regime. However, the respondents feel that the law and order situation has deteriorated under the SP rule.
The Lokniti-CSDS survey at this stage shows that the Samajwadi Party (SP) is leading in terms of vote share. This is followed by the BJP and the BSP with the Congress a distant fourth. The ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) seems to have an advantage over the others as it has been able to retain its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote share. 
The dalits who had rallied behind the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during the General Elections of 2014 seem to
reverting to Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The absence of a Powerful Chief Ministerial candidate in Uttar Pradesh is hurting the BJP. Going by the trends so far, it appears Amit Shah will be unlikely to repeat the success story of 2014 general election (where the BJP won 72 out of the 80 seats on offer in UP).
Given that we are six months away from the UP elections, it would make sense to take these results with a pinch of salt.