India’s exports may continue to fall through the first half of FY10, according to the trade secretary on Monday. He also said that exports in March may have fallen by 31%, sixth straight decline in exports.
Exports during the full fiscal 2008-09 would probably reach the downwardly revised figure of $170 billion. However, the next fiscal will bring more pain and the declining trend may not turnaround before the second half of FY10. As a result, there will be flat growth at the best in FY10.
Most of the developing countries have witnessed sharp decline in exports due to deepening recession in Europe and US and resulting decline in consumer spending in these regions.
However, some support for India’s exports has been coming from areas like Latin America and South-east Asia which has prevented even the worst kind of nightmare for most of the export industries.