Deficit Watch – fiscal improvement + red flag on the current account

July 19, 2010 · Filed Under exim · Comment 

India’s current account balance has been subject historically to pronounced seasonality – improving sharply in the second half of each fiscal year (October- March). For FY09/10, however, we were surprised that the seasonal impact did not apply – instead, the current-account deficit actually widened for October 2009-March 2010 (to 3.4% of GDP, from 2.2% of GDP for April-September 2009). There were two main factors responsible; the trade balance was broadly unchanged between the two halves of the fiscal year Read more

Current Fitch Sovereign Rating of India

February 8, 2010 · Filed Under exim · Comment 

Here is what Fitch the international rating agency thinks of India. It said,

The Negative Outlook on the Local?Currency IDR reflects the agency’s judgement that the fiscal deterioration in the year to end?March 2009 (FY09) and FY10 has been partly structural in nature, and that India’s public finances are set to stress comparisons with ‘BBB’ peers beyond breaking point. The agency looks for meaningful fiscal consolidation measures to get India’s public finances onto a path consistent with the current ratings. Read more

Indian Rice Export Scam of Rs 2,500 Cr – Courtesy Pranab Mukherjee + KamalNath

December 23, 2009 · Filed Under exim · 1 Comment 

If you read the Outlook magazine dated Dec-21st, you will notice that despite objections raised by then Finance Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram and Agriculture, Food and Civil Supplies Minister – Mr. Sharad Pawar, empowered group of ministers headed by Mr. Pranab Mukherjee under the controversial leadership of then Commerce Minister Mr. Kamal Nath pushed for Rs 2,500 cr Rice Export Scam when India itself was facing food inflation and rice shortage.  So now you know why prices of food and essential commodities rise 🙂 Read more

Exports may continue to fall through H1 FY10

April 14, 2009 · Filed Under exim · Comment 

India’s exports may continue to fall through the first half of FY10, according to the trade secretary on Monday. He also said that exports in March may have fallen by 31%, sixth straight decline in exports.

Exports during the full fiscal 2008-09 would probably reach the downwardly revised figure of $170 billion. However, the next fiscal will bring more pain and the declining trend may not turnaround before the second half of FY10. As a result, there will be flat growth at the best in FY10.

Most of the developing countries have witnessed sharp decline in exports due to deepening recession in Europe and US and resulting decline in consumer spending in these regions.

However, some support for India’s exports has been coming from areas like Latin America and South-east Asia which has prevented even the worst kind of nightmare for most of the export industries.

RBI Forex reference rate for the dollar at Rs 50.52 on Monday

March 23, 2009 · Filed Under exim · Comment 

The Reserve Bank of India on Monday fixed the reference rate for the dollar at Rs 50.52, as compared to the previous rate of 50.14 on Friday.

The corresponding exchange rate for the euro was Rs 69.11 (Rs 68.39) and that for the UK pound was 73.5647 (Rs 72.4222).

The reference rate for the Japanese currency was fixed at Rs 52.50 (Rs 52.95) per 100 yen.

Traffic at Major Ports Declined by 4.2% in February

March 18, 2009 · Filed Under exim · Comment 

According to the latest data released by the IPA, traffic at major government-owned/regulated ports in India fell by 4.2% YoY in February. Traffic has fallen in 9 out of 12 ports in February 2009. Tuticorin port has had the sharpest decline at 32% YoY. Traffic
at ports like JNPT and Kandla have fallen by 19% and 13% respectively.

Overall traffic for the period April 2008-February 2009 has grown by 2.24%YoY. However, most of the growth has been front-ended – while traffic grew by ~5.3% in the 7 months of Apr-Oct08, it has fallen by 2.6% in the last 4 months.

Container volumes have fallen off sharply, with volumes down 26.2% in February. Bulk cargo trends remain mixed, fertilizer and coking coal volumes are down 40% and 49%, respectively, whereas POL, iron ore and thermal coal volumes continue to grow. MICT terminal at Mundra, container throughput for the month of February was ~44325, down 34% YoY.

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