business

HDFC Bank Ready for Industrial Uptake & Economy

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Mr Paresh Sukthankar, Deputy Managing Director reiterated that the bank is well positioned to exploit an investment cycle recovery – the stable funding base and capital position are key strengths. Operating leverage is still to play out and cost-income could improve further.

HDFC Bank should see a steady upturn in system loan growth to ~16% in FY15 and 18-20% in FY16. Management believes its strong balance sheet gives it an opportunity to strongly participate in any recovery, given its low NPLs and strong capital position. Low system deposit growth is a risk and management believes a focus on

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What’s the 100 Day Focus of NaMo led NDA Government ?

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Discussions with those who are well-versed with Narendra Modi’s working style suggest that the key transition that India is now likely to undergo is that India will now be run by a man keen on seeking glory and greatness as opposed to the routine obsession of politicians with rent-seeking.

Analysts meetings key officials and likely ministers in Delhi over the last couple of days suggest that the first 100 days of the BJP led NDA Government are likely to be focused on the following,

Inflation
Discussions with policy experts suggest

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Can Modi Dismantle Politician-Businessmen Crony Capitalism ?

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Over the past decade, Business houses in India have gotten close to Cash Rich Corrupt Highly Congress Politicians defining an era of Crony Capitalism. However, such businesses men are non-competitive in nature and lack the basis tenet of Business. This model (whereby politician-promoter cliques collude to suppress competition and drive up prices of food, housing, land and other important industrial inputs) could be on the retreat as Narendra Modi is

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Will Lok Sabha Exit Polls on 13th May set Direction for Stock Market ?

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Indian Stock markets are more favourably disposed towards a Modi-led BJP/NDA Government and that his victory is now being assigned increasingly higher probability. Opinion poll forecasts for NDA have moved up from 165-190 in Jul-13 to 240- 265 in Apr-14, vs. 272+ required for a majority. Markets may react quite differently to actual outcome scenarios, in the short-term. Our discussions with investors suggest that a number closer to the 272 mark or more would be taken very positively, possibly euphorically near-term. A number below 220-230 for NDA may be taken negatively short-term. An in-between

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Private Equity Investments in Indian Real Estate Since 2005

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Private equity (PE) investments in India started in 2005, and since then over US$14 bn has been invested in India in more than 700 transactions with around 300 developers across 33 cities. Of the money invested, exits of around US$5 bn have happened in the past 3-4 years. Because of issues relating to appreciating risks in the investments and the long-only nature of investments, around one-fifth of the 125 funds active in 2005-07 remain active now.

Developers have matured on their development plans with many restricting themselves to select geographies, understanding their scalability and organizational restrictions. But we believe that real estate being a cyclical and a low-entry-barrier business, volume growth could come only with smart expansion in new

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Indian Equities Discounting NaMo as Prime Minister of India

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India’s outperformance over EM is only 3% over last month and c10% over three months. A few investors believe that this could be a rally driven by the optimism for a decisive verdict in the upcoming general election results.

It may be tempting to attribute the rise in the index to increasing investor expectations of a strong NDA win in the upcoming general elections; however, fact is that within the index, external-focused sectors (IT and Pharma) and stocks (Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Hindalco)

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