First phase of the General Elections in India will start from 7th April and will continue till 12th May with results being announced on 16th May. We have seen the final set of opinion polls come out over the past week. The latest opinion polls suggest that BJP continues to be the front runner to form the next govt. The polls suggest two positives for them – BJP has increased its estimated seat tally from 192-210 seats (in the polls 4 weeks ago) to 206-218 seats; (b) More significantly, the NDA (BJP led alliance) has seen its estimated seat share increase from 211-231 seats last month to 234-246 seats. This increase is due to induction of new allies in the BJP alliance like the Tamil Nadu parties.
Congress-led UPA, on the other hand, has seen its estimated seats come down to around 111 (Congress at 94-106) seats in recent opinion polls vs. around 119 to 139 seats in the opinion polls a month back. The alliance, weakened by exit of allies like DMK and TMC, continues to lag way behind the BJP.
Regional Party King Makers in Lok Sabha Elections 2014
There are 5 regional parties which are not part of the UPA and appear likely to win at least 10 seats.
AIADMK: As per the opinion polls, AIADMK could win 15 to 21 seats.
TMC: As per the opinion polls, TMC could win around 23 to 29 seats.
BJD: As per the opinion polls, BJD could win around 10 to 16 seats.
BSP: As per the opinion polls, BSP could win around 10 to 16 seats.