Bihar—the Hindi heartland—post the 2014 polls, has for the first time turned into an electoral battleground. It is a large state characterised by embedded religion & caste based loyalties and the stakes are high for both the alliances.
For PM Modi, it is in a sense a referendum on his governance of past 15 months, especially after the recent washout of Parliament session. Besides, this election comes after BJP’s humiliating defeat in Delhi Assembly polls.
For the Janata Parivar, which has been cobbled with merger of 2 regional foes, it is a grand experiment to halt the Modi juggernaut. Failure to do so will seriously undermine their political prospects.
Caste equation favours grand alliance…: As it stands today, the caste equation is stacked in favour of the Janata Parivar. The alliance will consolidate Yadav, Muslim and Koermi votes (~35-40%), ~3-5% higher than NDA’s core vote bank of upper castes and Dalits. As regards political rallies so far, Lalu Yadav has been the alliance’s key crowd puller.
Nitish’s development image is being questioned: There is a consensus that Bihar has seen immense development under Nitish Kumar’s rule. However, his alliance with Lalu Yadav seems to have tarnished that image. This is perhaps why Janata Parivar posters/slogans seen across Patna are dominated by Nitish Kumar with little presence of Lalu Yadav.
Modi remains extremely popular: PM Modi has conducted 4 rallies in the state so far and all have received humungous response. Nearly all the journalists/editors we interacted with highlighted that there has been an overwhelming presence of youth at the PM’s rallies. Thus, the contest is a close call as Opinion Polls indicate 50-50 chances for both the BJP and the Janata Parivar. Thi is truly disappointing as we thought that NDA would get an absolute majority in the backdrop of anti-incumbency wave, but no concrete moves by the Narendra Modi Govt even after being 18 months in Power. The controversial Land Bill which we had opposed will pay BJP & Amit Shah dearly in the Bihar Assembly Elections of 2015.