The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its second stage forecasts for the South-West (SW) monsoon season (June-September 2010). IMD has said that the rainfall in the current monsoon season is likely to be normal. Given below is the brief summary:
Forecasts revised up for rainfall to 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 98% of the LPA projected in April. Immediate outlook for July and August looks normal, with July expected to receive rainfall to the tune of 98% of its LPA, and August 101% of its LPA. On a geographical segmentation, in North West India, rainfall is likely to be ~102% of LPA, while in North East India it is expected to be ~103% of LPA. For Central India and South Peninsula, it is expected to be ~99% and 102% of LPA, respectively.
One of the reasons the IMD cited about rainfalls being normal is the high probability (~60%) for La Nina conditions to develop during the monsoon season, which favours stronger than normal monsoon.
The current forecast is despite a relatively weak onset of the SW monsoon for most parts of the country. IMD’s latest estimates suggest that during the current monsoon season so far (June 01-24), rainfall has been ~11% lower than LPA. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, rainfall has been normal or excess in 20 subdivisions, while deficient/scanty in 16 sub-divisions.