Historically, Maharashtra has been a Congress stronghold with the exception of the period spanning 1995-99 when the BJP and Shiv Sena joined hands to form a Government in this State. Notably, the BJP’s seat share has been fairly constant over the last two decades being range bound in the low range of 42-65 seats.
Despite the backdrop of elections in Maharashtra set to be a four-way contest, the renowned political expert made the point that BJP is set emerge as the single-largest party in Maharashtra at the upcoming Assembly elections. However it is likely to win seats in the range of 100 to 120 (in the 288 seat Maharshtra assembly) implying that it will have to gather support from another party to form the Government. According to this expert, independents and the Shiv Sena appear to be the most likely post-poll partners that the BJP could approach.
Who will be the Chief Minister of Maharashtra after 2014 Assembly Polls ?
Given the base-case scenario of the BJP emerging as the single largest party, the three most likely candidates for the post of the Chief Minister according to this expert are likely to be Devendra Fadnavis (who is the current Maharshtra BJP chief and is known to enjoy Modi’s patronage), Vinod Tawde (who is an OBC Maratha) and Prakash Javdekar (who is not a mass leader but could be seen by the BJP high command as a trustworthy CM who can be controlled effectively from New Delhi).