Inflation + GDP + Economy Forecast

Here is HSBC’s Forecast for India. Wholesale price inflation probably peaked in March and will more than halve to 4% by year end, in our view. Key drivers of the WPI rate, including international food, metal and energy commodity price inflation, are now turning down, while a better monsoon will help drive food price inflation lower.

Expect GDP growth to average 8.8% in 2010/11, just beating consensus projections, which continue to move up, of 8.3%. Activity
will be supported by an impressive bounce back in agricultural output, as well as the lagged effects of the fiscal and monetary

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Indian Government Encourages Tax Haven Money Laundering

At the time when the western world gripped in financial crisis is trying to put an end to tax Havens, the Indian Government in its new Direct Tax Code has encouraged Foreign Investors to route money through Tax Havens and enjoy Tax FREE Returns.

This is a step backwards from earlier draft of the Direct Tax Code. FIIs investing from tax haven were exposed to taxation on capital gains under the Old DTC as the Old DTC was supposed to OVERRIDE the Double Tax Treaties. The Revised DTC retains the tax incentives on capital gains for FIIs from tax havens (like Mauritius, etc). This in effect encourages

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Double Digit Inflation – Courtesy Congress Government

May WPI inflation came in at 10.2% yoy, a big uptick from the 9.6% yoy in April. The reading was significantly higher than the consensus expectation of 9.6% yoy. The March inflation reading was also revised up to 11.0% yoy compared to 9.9% yoy earlier. On a sequential basis, headline inflation ticked up 1.5% mom s.a., compared to the 0.8% mom decline in April.

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Mumbai FSI increase: Government proposes, Court disposes

An FSI increase of 0.33x in suburban Mumbai was dismissed by the High Court. The negative impact of such an FSI increase on TDR prices would now be reversed.

The two-judge divisional bench of the Bombay High Court ruled in favor of the public interest litigation (PIL) filed, dismissing the increase in the FSI in suburban Mumbai (from 1 to 1.33) passed by the government of Maharashtra in Apr ’08. The reasons stated included the right to amend development plans, procedure followed by the government, no change in the development plan of the

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No Objectivity in Lending And Investment Decisions

By Guest Author – Sudip Bhattacharyya
An area where professional leadership and decision making can be questioned is lending to Small and Micro enterprises. SBI, Chairman was quoted in Economic Times on 11th May 2009 saying that as SMEs mostly supply to large units, the risk perception is more there and accordingly higher interest rate is applicable to SMEs. The logic for higher risk perception is not quiet understood and in any case, no authentic expert study supporting such assertion was seen. This is despite professed national policy for inclusive growth and support for MSME. In stead, banks prefer lazy banking. (Indian banks now have investment of nearly Rs.85500 crores in Mutual Fund and Rs.82000 crores in Govt. Bonds.).

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