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IIP growth, at 11.5% Y-o-Y, has been lower than the most conservative Street estimate; we had estimated 13-14%. The median street estimate was ~16.2%.
The big cyclical uptick is largely over for IIP, and in the coming months the number will fall further from the current level. IIP growth rate for June should be in high single-digits. The current number supports our view of absence of any generalised demand overheating in
Here is BOFA Merrill’s account of the current situation in India. IN a report it said,
expect the RBI to hike policy LAF rates by 25bp in its July 27 policy. We believe May industrial growth, after all, will likely post a high 16.5% on July 12. We also expect June inflation to persist at 10% levels on July 14. Besides these figures, it is critical that the sowing month of July gets the normal rains that the Met forecasts. The markets will also keep an eye on the June
Several Moves in the market fixing the base rate and effecting the Repo and Reverse Repo rate come too late in our view as the RBI seems to be under Pressure from South Block and is not acting in the interest of the Nation for which it has been created. Inflationary pressure has been in Double Digits and we simply don’t understand why RBI is refusing to suck the excess liquidity driving prices like crazy.
The RBI under criticism from all corners took a baby
India’s BoP recorded a surplus of USD 2.1 bn during Q4FY10, more or less same as the previous quarter. Current account balance worsened a bit from the previous quarter, but was compensated by almost equal increase on the capital account.
Current account deficit stood at ~USD 13 bn during the quarter under review, amounting to ~3.4% of GDP, historically on the higher side. Among the important components of the current account, merchandise balance and private transfers deteriorated, while
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its second stage forecasts for the South-West (SW) monsoon season (June-September 2010). IMD has said that the rainfall in the current monsoon season is likely to be normal. Given below is the brief summary:
Forecasts revised up for rainfall to 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 98% of the LPA projected in April. Immediate outlook
Read moreMeteorological Dept Upgrades Monsoon Forecast – Trust Data ?
The empowered group of ministers (EGoM) on fuel prices has decided to decontrol the prices of petrol while price of diesel has been increased by Rs 2. The prices of cooking fuels kerosene and LPG have been increased by Rs 3 per litre and Rs 35 per 14.2 kg cylinder.
The government may deregulate price of diesel at a later stage but those of cooking fuels will continued to be subsidised.
As per the decision taken by the EGoM, the prices of petrol will from now on be determined by the market forces. This would mean a
Read moreIndia Deregulates Petrol Price – Diesel hiked by Rs 2/litre