Mobile Competition Eases – Tariffs Rise

Competitive intensity continues to ease and lower gross adds with new verification norms should help rationalize cost. This is a a more positive outlook for the industry and the advantage of incumbents. Competition has started to ease and any resultant uptick in rev/min would benefit Airtel via operating leverage. Our analysis of the tariffs as disclosed on the company Websites suggests that base tariffs have remained largely unchanged; however, promotional outgoing tariffs have been hiked by an
average of ~6%, implying ~3% higher ARPM’s.

Incumbents (Airtel, Idea and Vodafone) have the the network advantage in urban and rural areas. This should help them 1) Manage a lucrative post-paid base in

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India’s Current Account Deficit – From bad to worse

Preliminary data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released late Monday showed that the Q2 FY2013 (calendar Q3 2012) current account deficit widened from USD 16.4bn to a record USD 22.3bn.As already foreshadowed by the monthly customs trade data, the bulk of the deterioration in the current account position in Q2 stemmed from goods trade. On a balance of payments basis, the goods trade deficit jumped back up to USD 48.3bn from USD 42.3bn, hence more than accounting for the widening in the current account deficit.

Drilling down, the data show that a sharper fall in exports (-12.2% y/y) relative to imports (-4.8% y/y) was the key driver of the bigger deficit.

Capital Inflows Net capital inflows, led by the encouraging buoyancy

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