Meteorological Dept Upgrades Monsoon Forecast – Trust Data ?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its second stage forecasts for the South-West (SW) monsoon season (June-September 2010). IMD has said that the rainfall in the current monsoon season is likely to be normal. Given below is the brief summary:

Forecasts revised up for rainfall to 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 98% of the LPA projected in April. Immediate outlook

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India Deregulates Petrol Price – Diesel hiked by Rs 2/litre

The empowered group of ministers (EGoM) on fuel prices has decided to decontrol the prices of petrol while price of diesel has been increased by Rs 2. The prices of cooking fuels kerosene and LPG have been increased by Rs 3 per litre and Rs 35 per 14.2 kg cylinder.

The government may deregulate price of diesel at a later stage but those of cooking fuels will continued to be subsidised.

As per the decision taken by the EGoM, the prices of petrol will from now on be determined by the market forces. This would mean a

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Inflation + GDP + Economy Forecast

Here is HSBC’s Forecast for India. Wholesale price inflation probably peaked in March and will more than halve to 4% by year end, in our view. Key drivers of the WPI rate, including international food, metal and energy commodity price inflation, are now turning down, while a better monsoon will help drive food price inflation lower.

Expect GDP growth to average 8.8% in 2010/11, just beating consensus projections, which continue to move up, of 8.3%. Activity
will be supported by an impressive bounce back in agricultural output, as well as the lagged effects of the fiscal and monetary

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Indian Government Encourages Tax Haven Money Laundering

At the time when the western world gripped in financial crisis is trying to put an end to tax Havens, the Indian Government in its new Direct Tax Code has encouraged Foreign Investors to route money through Tax Havens and enjoy Tax FREE Returns.

This is a step backwards from earlier draft of the Direct Tax Code. FIIs investing from tax haven were exposed to taxation on capital gains under the Old DTC as the Old DTC was supposed to OVERRIDE the Double Tax Treaties. The Revised DTC retains the tax incentives on capital gains for FIIs from tax havens (like Mauritius, etc). This in effect encourages

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Double Digit Inflation – Courtesy Congress Government

May WPI inflation came in at 10.2% yoy, a big uptick from the 9.6% yoy in April. The reading was significantly higher than the consensus expectation of 9.6% yoy. The March inflation reading was also revised up to 11.0% yoy compared to 9.9% yoy earlier. On a sequential basis, headline inflation ticked up 1.5% mom s.a., compared to the 0.8% mom decline in April.

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